Topps has made a deliberate effort in recent years to address one of the biggest problems in the hobby: bots. Releases were disappearing within seconds, and for many collectors, there was simply no realistic chance to purchase boxes at retail. The introduction of EQL was meant to change that. Instead of rewarding speed or automation, the system was designed to give everyone an equal opportunity.
At least in theory, that is how it works.
In practice, the experience often looks very different. I have personally entered multiple EQL drops over the past months, including attempts to secure 2025 Topps Chrome Jumbo and Hobby boxes. The outcome has been consistent. No success. Four attempts, four losses. And based on what many collectors are reporting, this is far from an isolated experience.
The obvious conclusion would be that demand is simply too high. The real issue lies deeper, and it has less to do with the mechanics of EQL itself and more with how product is distributed before it even reaches the system.
Allocation Shapes the Outcome
To understand why EQL success rates feel so low, it helps to look at recent releases more closely. The Topps Sapphire Basketball product is a good example. With a total print run estimated somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 boxes, supply was already limited by modern standards. That alone would have created pressure.
What stands out, however, is how a significant portion of that supply appears to be allocated to large breakers and high-volume buyers. Reports and observations from the market suggest that major breaking operations received dozens of cases. Even conservative estimates indicate that a meaningful percentage of the total print run was distributed before the average collector ever entered an EQL draw.
This changes the equation entirely. EQL does not distribute the full supply. It distributes what remains after these allocations have already been made. As a result, the effective pool of boxes available to the public is much smaller than it appears on paper.
Why Demand Feels Unbeatable
From the outside, it can feel as if EQL simply does not work. Entries are submitted, confirmation emails arrive, and then nothing.
This explains why products continue to sell out almost immediately and why secondary market prices rise so aggressively. When supply is restricted at the distribution level, price discovery moves to platforms like eBay, where boxes often trade at multiples of their original retail price.
The Role of Breakers
At this point, the discussion usually turns toward breakers. Some collectors argue that the solution is simple: stop buying into breaks and focus on singles instead. While that argument is understandable, it overlooks an important detail.
The majority of singles entering the market originate from breaks. Breakers open large quantities of product, distribute cards through team-based sales, and then either sell the remaining inventory or enable others to do so. This means that even collectors who avoid breaks directly often remain connected to the same ecosystem.
From a business perspective, the role of breakers is easy to understand. They provide immediate volume, constant visibility, and a reliable way to move large amounts of product quickly. For manufacturers, this creates efficiency and predictable revenue. A box sold through a breaker can effectively generate more total value than a box sold directly to an individual collector.
This does not necessarily make the system fair, but it does explain why it persists.
What EQL Actually Solves
It is important to recognize that EQL does address one specific issue. It reduces the impact of bots and eliminates the need for speed-based purchasing. In that sense, it represents an improvement over previous systems.
However, it does not solve the broader problem of access. Access is determined not only by how fairly a product is distributed, but also by how much of that product is made available to begin with. If a large share of supply is allocated elsewhere, even a perfectly fair lottery cannot compensate for that imbalance.
A Structural Shift in the Hobby
What we are seeing is not a temporary problem, but a structural shift. High-demand products are increasingly difficult to access at retail, while lower-tier releases remain widely available. This creates a two-tier system in which premium products are effectively restricted, while entry-level options remain accessible.
There are clear parallels to other markets. In finance, highly desirable opportunities are often allocated to large participants first, with retail investors accessing them later at market prices. A similar dynamic is emerging in the trading card space.
For collectors, this leads to a fundamental decision. Continue to chase EQL drops despite low success rates, pay elevated prices on the secondary market, or step away from current releases entirely and focus on older products or singles. Each option comes with its own trade-offs, and none of them fully resolves the underlying issue.
EQL is not broken. It is doing what it was designed to do. But it is operating within a system where distribution is already heavily skewed before the process even begins.
As long as that remains the case, the experience for most collectors will stay the same. Entries will be submitted, results will come in, and more often than not, the outcome will be disappointment.
The question is no longer whether the system is fair in isolation. The question is whether fairness at the entry level matters when access to the product is already limited from the start.